Reform UK’s strong performance in the local elections has dominated political analysis, but the numbers conceal a more important signal for the business community.
Labour’s vote share in traditional working-class constituencies continued its structural decline, not because voters have swung to the right on culture, but because they are experiencing the economic consequences of this government’s choices.
Small business owners, self-employed tradespeople, and the managers of medium-sized enterprises are among Labour’s most estranged former supporters.
The minimum wage increase, the NI hike, and the extension of worker protections under the Employment Rights Bill collectively represent a sharp increase in the cost of employing people in Britain.
Historically, governments that lose touch with small business lose the economic argument. Margaret Thatcher understood this instinctively; New Labour maintained it strategically. The current government appears to regard enterprise as something to be taxed and regulated rather than nurtured. The local election results should serve as an early warning that the political cost of that approach is beginning to arrive.
Macro Aggressions 